In December 2015, the government remained confident that its 2020 emissions target would be met through measures in the program and elsewhere. [14] However, a government report published on 30 September 2016 shows that Germany will only meet its greenhouse gas commitments for 2020 in the best-case scenario. [2] The report prepared for the European Union is available in German. [15] The analysis forecasts Germany`s greenhouse gas emissions for the next 20 years. Overall, the new climate agenda is based on incremental improvements that are too slow instead of showing a firm commitment to the transformative measures needed to achieve the net-zero emissions target by 2050, with a path compatible with the Paris Agreement. The preamble also reaffirms Germany`s climate targets for 2010 (see table) and the commitment of the 2016 Paris Agreement. [b] [1] In the 2013 coalition agreement, it says: “In Germany, we want to codify the next reduction measures in the light of the European targets and the outcomes of the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference up to the target of 80-95% in 2050 and underpin them as part of a broad process of dialogue with measures (climate protection plan).” But the final word on the climate law has not yet been pronounced. To become law, the bill must go through both chambers of the German parliamentary system, which also requires the agreement of other parties, including the Greens, who have published their own demands for a climate law. For Germany to once again play a leading role in implementing strengthened global climate change measures, it is still possible that the current proposal is only a stepping stone to climate protection compatible with the Paris Agreement in Germany. This compromise was only reached thanks to an agreement to compensate the regions concerned (€40 billion) and the companies concerned that operate the coal-fired power plants (an additional €4.35 billion) (Agora Energiewende, 2019); Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, 2019). The initial compromise was the subject of a broad social consensus.

But the timeline is still not fast enough to be compatible with a 1.5°C trajectory that would require an exit from coal from OECD countries by 2030 (Climate Analytics, 2018). And while the government has promised to anchor the coal exit roadmap by November 2019, it was only adopted in July 2020 and significantly watered down by the coal Commission`s already weak recommendations. On September 20, the same day that more than 1.4 million federal citizens took to the streets to demand, along with millions of others around the world, action on climate change, the federal government released its long-awaited climate package. The following week, at the UN Secretary-General`s summit on climate change in New York, Chancellor Merkel announced her commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which must now be reflected in the climate law. However, it is now clear that the draft climate law adopted by the cabinet on 9 October, as well as the final 2030 climate change programme, would set targets for 2030, which are insufficient for the Paris Agreement and therefore insufficient to reach zero by 2050. . .

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